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ASPO-Australia updates its Peak Oil Summary from time to time. The current update (January 2015) is available here.
In November 2014, Wally Wight and Bruce Robinson were invited to speak at the NG Oil & Gas Summit in Cairns.
was first, followed by
Bruce also provided a briefing to some staff from the Cairns Regional Council suggesting an updated Oil Risk Strategy to build on the earlier FNQ Peak Oil study
A proposal for an Oil-Risk Strategy for the Great Southern region Kojonup October 8th 2014
POSSIBLE FUEL SHORTAGES: an overlooked factor in risk management in the resources industry. An article published in National Resources Review, July 2014 issue. "Australia’s oil vulnerability is very high, and future fuel supplies cannot be guaranteed. Already 91% of our fuel is imported".
Senate Fuel Indexation Submission: 27th-June-2014
Australia’s serious oil vulnerability greatly strengthens the case for fuel excise indexation The proposed indexation is a crucial first step, but in addition we should go much further. Australia should follow the lead of a past UK Conservative Government and increase fuel excise on a fuel-tax escalator by CPI plus 5% or so. The additional fuel excise raised should not be hypothecated to ever more roads, but used for education, hospitals, aged care and all the other services which are not properly funded
Rail line closures will worsen our serious Oil Vulnerability The WA Government is closing rail lines used for grain transport, without considering oil vulnerability implications.
“Peak Oil and Oil Vulnerability: What are the implications for industrial agriculture and communities” Monash Masters thesis by Donald Coventry
Modern agriculture’s high levels of production and global markets have been made possible through vast inputs of fossil fuels for machinery, transport, fertilizer, chemicals, crop and processed food production. Consequently, the peaking and depletion of oil, which eventually will be followed by gas, will challenge how we both produce agricultural output and live in rural and remote Australia
The foreshadowed petrol tax rise is an important step towards reducing our oil vulnerability, ASPO-Australia convenor, Bruce Robinson said. Europe and the Ukraine are dangerously reliant on imports of Russian gas, but Australia is even more dependent on imported fuel and oil. An NRMA report on the nation's liquid fuel security shows that 91% of the fuel for our cars, trucks and planes is imported, either directly or as crude oil to be refined in Australia. AUSTRALIA would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if its overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off. The government has allowed the country to become too dependent on foreign supply of liquid fuels. The report says there are no coherent contingency plans to deal with the devastating impact of any cut to overseas supply because of war, economic turmoil or natural disasters, instead adopting a "she'll be right" approach. Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have. The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil says it is crucial that our serious oil vulnerability is reduced. Raising fuel taxes to European levels via a fuel tax escalator would greatly encourage fuel-saving strategies and provide funding for improved public transport. It would also help us value petrol as a scarce resource, just as the big drought forced us to value water supplies. Global oil production has been almost static since 2005 and is forecast to start declining soon. The output from most of the world’s major oilfields is already in decline, just as Australia’s oil production has been falling steadily since 2000.
The Government is to be congratulated on starting to tackle the sacred cow of fuel taxes. (Download news release)
NRMA Fuel Security report 2014 (full report)
Courier Mail article (5th-April-2014)
AUSTRALIA would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if its overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off Article in The Australian 28-February-2013
NRMA report and summary NRMA infographic
An Oil Risk Strategy for Margaret River? Slides for a presentation on 29th April Bruce Robinson (22MB)
Perth's phantom mailout enthusiast. ASPO-Australia has been getting quite a lot of letters returned by Australia Post. However, we did not send them. Some enthusiasts have been sending Peak Oil information around with ASPO-Australia logos etc on the envelopes. These letters are sent anonymously, so we can't get in touch to thank them for their efforts or to encourage them to include their names and addresses when sending out Peak Oil information. We would like to touch base with the poster(s), please. Bruce Robinson, Convenor, 9384 7409
2014 Energy White Paper first submission
Main Submission Appendix
We hope that this time, oil vulnerability will be taken seriously. However, there are no signs from the issues paper that this will happen. For information about the current unfortunate line of thought see
http://ewp.industry.gov.au/ for the EWP Issues Paper
National Energy Security Assessment (2011)
Liquid Fuels Vulnerability Assessment (2011)
Inexpensive oil vanishing at alarming rate. Toronto Globe and Mail, Dec 13 2013
The propaganda campaign against peaking fossil fuel production
published by PeakOil.com, Nov 5th. Michael Lardelli, University of Adelaide Fenner Conference on Population, Resources and Climate Change: “Implications for Australia’s Near Future”, Canberra, October 2013
An oil crash is on its way and we should be ready
New Scientist 4th November 2013 Jeremy Leggett
Five years ago the world was in the grip of a financial crisis that is still reverberating around the globe. Much of the blame for that can be attributed to weaknesses in human psychology: we have a collective tendency to be blind to the kind of risks that can crash economies and imperil civilisations
US will always remain a crude oil importer.
US shale oil has so far replaced 2 mb/d of its crude oil imports which peaked at around 10 mb/d in 2005. If this effort can be doubled the US would still need to import around 6 mb/d. Matt Mushalik in Resilience.org
Eureka Report on Peak Oil. The prominent investors' "Eureka Report" ran a detailed report (20th September 2013) on Peak Oil by Matt Mushalik
Sustainable Transport Coalition Seminar at DoT(WA) October 2013
Moving People in Perth Craig Wooldridge, DoT draft policy
Walking Catchments David Rice A relevant view of active transport
Walking and Cycling as Economic Activities: Short presentation by Ian Ker. Bikes 50c/km health benefits, $1/km avoided parking costs
Will Global Oil Shortages Occur in the Short-Medium Term? 10MB presentation to the Next Generation Oil & Gas Summit, Perth, 5th September 2013, Bruce Robinson
Oil Security Index International comparison
The Oil Security Index is an analytical tool designed to be an intuitive tool for policymakers, business leaders, and the general public to easily measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a dozen countries around the world
Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil
Important paper by Kerschner, Prell, Feng and Hubacek in Global Environmental Change (2013)
Peak Oil and Energy Independence: Myth and Reality Prof James Murray and Jim Hansen, succinct important paper published in EOS American Geophysical Union 9th July 2013
Supply Chain Oil Vulnerability: Mitigation and adaptation (10MB PPT) an invited presentation by Bruce Robinson, Convenor, ASPO-Australia to the big Supply Chain and Logistics SmartConference, Sydney 26th June 2013
Australian Oil Vulnerability Risk Management Conference Brisbane June 4th 2013 The conference was very successful, and ASPO-Australia is grateful to Griffith University and Sunshine Coast Regional Council for support. Programme Media Release
Peak Oil, Climate Change and Global Sustainability - The Case for Emergency Action, Ian Dunlop Slides, Audio (100MB)
City of Stirling Oil Risk Strategy Ross Povey Slides, Audio (45MB)
Oil Vulnerability in Australian Cities: Transition and Challenges Jago Dodson Text, Audio (50MB)
Oil Vulnerability Implications for Planning Wally Wight Slides, Audio (40MB)
Peak Oil Preparedness and Parturition Dr Kirsten Small Slides Audio (53MB)
Planning for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to Successfully Manage Coming Transport Revolutions Prof Antony Perl Slides Audio (70MB)
The panel discussion at the end of the Symposium was recorded and was broadcast on ABC Radio National "Big Ideas" on Monday 10th June at 8pm. Available online at the ABC Big Ideas programme.
Increase fuel taxes - ASPO. Politicians should confront the ‘Sacred Cow’ status of petrol prices and increase fuel taxes in this budget and in subsequent years, according to the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). ASPO convenor, Bruce Robinson says as well as providing vital funds for education, health, public transport and safer roads, increasing fuel taxes will help people reduce their unsustainable dependence on car travel. Mr Robinson says Australian cities are being increasingly throttled by traffic congestion and our dependence on imported fuel leaves us very vulnerable to oil shocks and future global oil shortages.
“A recent report by Air Vice Marshall John Blackburn for the NRMA warned that governments have allowed us to become too dependent on foreign supplies for our liquid fuels,” says Mr Robinson. “85% of our transport fuel is now imported, either as crude oil for Australian refineries or direct as refined fuel. The report warned that Australia would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if our overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off.”
Full media release
Vale Dave Kilsby
We are very sad to have learned recently that David Kilsby, the founder of ASPO-Sydney, died in May 2012. He was a very skilled urban and transport planner aware of the serious implications of Peak Oil. He compiled the ASPO-Australia Urban and Transport Planning Working Group submission to the 2006 Senate Inquiry and appeared in person with Ali Samsam Bakhtiari in Sydney. (Hansard report) He also prepared the Cairns Oil Vulnerability Report for Queensland Transport in 2007. He had been handicapped in recent years by a degenerative neurological disease. and his website with copies of a lot of Peak Oil papers and others.
AUSTRALIA would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if its overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off Article in The Australian 28-February-2013
NRMA report and summary NRMA infographic
Energy Watch Group Update of world oil, gas coal and uranium forecasts. An invaluable independent assessment from Werner Zittel in Munich. March 2013
Bruce Robinson met some peak oil people in NZ in February 2013. Susan Krumdieck, U Canterbury, and Gareth Hughes, Green MP. PPT for NZ News Release
NZ Parliamentary Library Research Paper. "The Next Oil Shock" October 2010
NZ Oil Emergency Response Strategy (2008)
Selected videos on ASPO-Australia's Youtube
http://www.youtube.com/aspoaustralia
Also very highly recommended. Prof Susan Krumdiek Confronting the Status Quo Please look at the beginning of the presentation at least
NG Oil & Gas Summit, Cairns 8-Nov-2012 "Peak Oil: Will Global Oil Shortages Occur in the Short-Medium Term ?", Presentation (22MB), news release.
Stirling Oil Risk Strategy
The City of Stirling is Perth's biggest local government. The Oil Risk Strategy, adopted in July 2012, is the result of long and patient work by Council staff over some six years. It is a major achievement and sets a standard that we can only hope State and Federal Governments will follow, to actually accept and discuss Peak Oil and its implications
ATRF Workshop 27-Sept-2012 Peak Oil presentation (18Mb) Bruce Robinson and Peak Car presentation, (58Mb) Peter Newman, Workshop Summary (1MB) Ian Ker Australasian Transport Research Forum, Perth
Richard Heinberg's tour of Australia
A transcript of the energy section of his Canberra talk and Canberra Times article. He spoke Curtin University (CUSP Fremantle) and the University of Western Australia Business School on 27th September News release
Monbiot says he was wrong on peak oil but the crisis is undeniable
Many within the fossil fuel industry are sounding alarms. Society ignores such warnings – and listens to potential bubble-backers like Monbiot – at its peril. Jeremy Leggett, Guardian blog 4th July 2012
Se also David Strahan, about Maugeri "Monbiot peak oil u-turn based on bad science, worse maths" 30th-July-2012
Peak Oil and Global Governance Invited talk to Curtin University students 22-May-2012 (20 MB) Bruce Robinson
Oil Vulnerability of WA's Health System Dr James Barson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia's Health Sector Working Group Seminar at Curtin University, Fremantle 16th May 2012 JAPH paper by Hess et al. referenced by Dr Barson
Energy White Paper Submission
Comments on the inadequate coverage of the risk of future oil shortages in the draft Energy White Paper The coverage of the real risks of future global oil shortages in the Energy White Paper is very seriously inadequate and displays a common but unfortunate tendency in Government and business to overlook or discount crucial risk factors. “Predictable Surprises” is the title of an essay published in the Harvard Business Review and a subsequent book. “Why do leaders consistently ignore looming signs of crises even when they know the consequences could be devastating? Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs Another analogy is “The Optimism Bias”, where only the most positive and favourable outcomes are considered in planning. This is an unconscious bias. However, the associated “Strategic Misrepresentation” is a related deliberate deception towards an unrealistically optimistic outcome. A number of documents were included as appendices Predictable Surprises, Optimism Bias, Peak Oil Summary, Economic explanation of Peak Oil, Megaprojects approach , Nature-Peak Oil , Aleklett-IEA-review and BITRE 117
Anaesthetics, Peak Oil & Complexity: A poster by James Barson, our Health Sector Coordinator.
Prof Aleklett's book is available from Amazon.com
ASPO conference Vienna, 30th May-June 1st 2012
Vienna hosted the 10th annual ASPO Conference, a gathering of international top experts on the depletion of fossil fuels and energy availability. The conference provided attendees the latest updates on a wide range of energy issues including fossil fuel availability, short and long term economic consequences of increasing energy prices, and energy supply and demand scenarios. Our wide ranging audience of decision makers, scientists, the business sector, public authorities and NGOs ensured discussions and networking opportunities on an international in-depth level.
This year´s International ASPO Conference took place at the medieval “Palais Niederösterreich” in Vienna´s beautiful city center during May 30 – June 1, 2012.
Govt should release 2009 “Peak Oil” report The Federal Government has been accused by a Sydney newspaper of hiding a valuable “Peak Oil” report which forecasts global oil shortages by 2017. The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) prepared a valuable 400 page report in 2009 “Transport Energy Futures: Long-term oil supply trends and projections which models future oil production from very detailed data. The report concludes "The modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond".
Copies of the report are available on the Australian Institute of Energy website here ,and via other links on ASPO-Australia below News Release
Peak Oil on "The Project". 11th January The popular Channel Ten current affairs programme ran a good short light-hearted overview of Peak Oil featuring ASPO-Australia
From the Energy Bulletin, a review by Ugo Bardi (ASPO-Italia) "One of the most interesting talks at the recent meeting on Energy organized by the Club of Rome in Basel, was the one given by Ian Dunlop, of ASPO Australia. It was not so much on energy, but on the interconnection of energy with climate change. It was up to date and saying the things that needed to be said. That is, Ian Dunlop didn't shy away from saying that climate change is threatening the very existence of our civilization and that we must do something quick about it. It was an excellent talk, give a look to the slides if you have a moment, here is the link " Also available at ASPO-Australia here
Transport Energy Futures: Long-term oil supply trends and projections
Report 117 BITRE 2009 Dr David Gargett
"The modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond".
This report is no longer available from BITRE, but no reason has been given for its withdrawal. ASPO-Australia was asked to take it off our website. However, the report is available at the Australian Institute of Energy, here, from Ian McPherson of SydneyPeakOil (here) and on a French website
"Labor has tried to hide the evidence" Jan 20th article in the DailyTelegraph here. The article is a bit muddy, muddled and sensationalist, but it has brought BITRE 117 to the public attention
Peak Oil - Environmental Implications and Policy Options. Slides of a presentation to the Office of the WA Environmental Protection Authority 30th Sept 2011 (27MB)
An economic explanation of Peak Oil. Chris Skrebowski. Sept 2011
WA Energy Summit, Perth, 25th May 2011. Peak Oil: Probabilities, timing and possible impacts (27MB) Invited presentation. Bruce Robinson News release
Peak Oil Policy Options for Australia. Invited written paper for ASPO-Brussels conference, 27-29th April 2011. Bruce Robinson Slides of the presentation (28MB) Watch full video of the presentation and slides (26 min)
The ASPO9 conference presentations and video are available at www.ASPO9.be I recommend watching those by Aleklett, Skrebowski, Rubins and Murphy first, but there are lots of interesting talks.
ABC TV Catalyst Nationwide Peak Oil programme Thurs 28th April. or Watch on You-Tube
In just a century, we’ve become entirely dependent on cheap oil. We rely on oil for just about everything, from the food we eat, to our transport systems and even our economic stability. So what would happen if we ran out? There’s a growing fear amongst petroleum experts that it’s happening much sooner than previously thought – that we are hitting Peak Oil now. So how soon will demand outstrip supply, and will we be able to avoid the global economy collapsing when it does? How prepared are we for the Oil Crunch?
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook April 2011
OIL SCARCITY, GROWTH, AND GLOBAL IMBALANCES Summary
1. Global oil markets are in a period of increased scarcity, reflecting rapid growth in oil demand in emerging economies and a downshift in oil supply growth.
2. Gradual and moderate increases in oil scarcity––which seems to be the most likely scenario––would have a small impact on medium-term global economic growth. However, risks remain that scarcity or its growth impact could be more significant.
3. A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital flows and a widening of current account imbalances.
4. Policies should aim at facilitating adjustment to unexpected changes in oil scarcity and at lowering risks from larger-than-expected medium-term oil scarcity.
Science Show ABC Radio, 23-April. Long interviews with Chris Skrebowski, Fatih Birol and Jeremy Leggett (interviews by Jonica Newby as part of her Catalyst preparation)
Oil supplies are rapidly dwindling and demand is increasing leading analysts to warn of an impending oil crunch. The global oil supply has lost the equivalent of the volume of the North Sea oil reserve in 15 months. By 2014, supply is expected to fall short of demand. Other factors could bring that forward. Fatih Birol says the age of cheap oil is over and we all need to prepare ourselves for higher oil prices. Further he says no government is prepared for what lies ahead. Jeremy Leggett describes the oil crunch, when global supply fails to meet demand.
Submission to the Prime Minister: 30th March 2011. When the PM was opening the National Trust property, the home of Australia's wartime prime minister, John Curtin, I took the opportunity to introduce myself, and to request a "Garnaut-style" independent inquiry into Australi's oil vulnerability. I handed her the submission. I also gave a copy to Defence Minister, Stephen Smith, and Cabinet Minister, Senator Chris Evans. It was informal, and the PM had been chatting to our neighbours over the back fence just before I talked to her about the future oil shortages.
News Release: "Australia will soon not be able to import enough oil to meet demand because of Peak Oil"
Tour of Australia: Prof Kjell Aleklett, Global Energy Systems group, Uppsala University 2010
Public events:
- 27th October Whitlam Institute, University of Western Sydney 4-6 pm "Resource Depletion - The Tie That Binds Peak Oil & Food Security"
- 5th November, Brisbane Institute, noon. Sustainable Transport
- 12th November, University of Sydney, 6pm "The Peak of the Oil Age: Declining world oil production will halt economic growth."
- Science Show interview, 13th Nov 2010. Listen and Transcript
- 24th November, University of Melbourne, Prince Phillip Theatre, 6-8pm (sponsored by Melbourne Uni GAMUT)
- 25th November, University of Queensland, 5:30 for 6pm Peak Energy: Peak Oil may be past. Peak Coal is sooner than you think. Are we ready for the descent?
- 9th December Adelaide University Noon, 'Projecting future fuel production - Peak Oil, Peak Coal, Peak Natural Gas, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios'.
- 13th December ACT Legislative Assembly 5:30 for 6pm Peak Oil - an end to economic growth? (Presentation, PDF, 13MB)
- 16th December,"Peak Oil: Declining world oil production should be a major factor in all urban and transport planning." Presentation (PDF, 4MB)
Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute
- 16th December, Perth, 5:45 for 6pm. "A Public Forum: Peak Oil and Australia’s Oil Vulnerability, The Greens WA Office (Presentation (PDF, 4MB)
- 17-Dec: Briefing to WA Dept of Transport at Main Roads Dept (PDF 5MB)
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Excellence in Oil & Gas Sydney, Feb 28 – March 2, 2011
The 6th annual Excellence in Oil & Gas summit is Sydney’s largest event which stimulates investment in the oil and gas sector, by connecting the finance and investment communities with oil & gas companies.
"Peak Oil-What is it, and what does it mean for investors" Invited presentation by Bruce Robinson 1st March 2011
An Oil Vulnerability Assessment for the Albany region. 3rd Nov 2010 Bruce Robinson News release and recommendation, Peak oil summary and Presentation for the City of Albany, Great Southern Development Commission and Denmark Shire Council
Bunbury should start preparing for coming global oil shortages. 6th October 2010
Oil depletion expert, Bruce Robinson, has recommended to the Bunbury City Council that it should start preparing an Oil Vulnerability plan. (recommendation, and Peak Oil summary)
Global oil production is likely to start its inevitable decline sometime in the next few years, perhaps by 2015 or earlier. "Peak Oil" is the time when oil shortages begin as the total production from the world's giant oil fields begins to decrease, instead of rising steadily as it has done over the past 100 years. Cities that prepare in advance for the future oil shortages will have tremendous advantages over those that keep believing that business will always be as usual. Bunbury is well-equipped to handle fuel shortages, as travel distances in the city are much shorter than those in Perth. If fuel gets towards the CSIRO scenario of $8/litre by 2018, there will be a lot of changes needed in people's travel habits. Oil Vulnerability Planning should be commonplace, just as people assess their bushfire risks and have emergency plans in case there are major bushfires.
Peak Oil is almost sure to hit Bunbury people much sooner and much harder than Climate Change, but all the current planning is for Climate Change and none for increasingly severe oil shortages.
Mr Robinson is national Convenor of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-Australia). He will be speaking at a seminar arranged by Engineers Australia at ECU Bunbury at 6pm Tuesday evening 5th October and at ECU at noon on Wednesday 6th October For further information contact Bruce Robinson on 0427 398 708
Lasers or Longbows? A Paradox of Military Technology Major Cameron Leckie, Australian Defence Force Journal August 2010 (44-56)
The advantage provided by the increased complexity of a military capability increases the vulnerability of that same capability to systemic collapse due to its reliance on complex supply chains
Peak Oil is just one of the problems facing defence forces, but perhaps a critical one in that the globalisation of manufacturing and supply depends on it
Because of a number of converging threats, it appears unlikely that current levels of complexity can be maintained indefinitely. These threats are likely to present themselves as a series of ‘strategic shocks’ that will precipitate the transition from abundance to scarcity industrialism. Based on an analysis of the factors leading to this paradox, the most effective response appears to be a reduction in the complexity of military capabilities.
Peak oil is the villain governments need Using the threat of a high oil prices is a sell the public will buy into – unlike intangible arguments over climate change Guardian. 11-Aug-2010
Vale Matt Simmons: One of the great pioneers of popularising Peak Oil died August 9th 2010. Matt Simmons was a Republican investment banker who could communicate with the big end of town and advise George W Bush on energy matters. His many presentations were a valuable tool for us. They are now archived on the Ocean Energy site.
 Matt gave a paper at the first ASPO conference in Uppsala in 2002. He is pictured (right) being interviewed for Swedish TV at the time. See the Energy Bulletin tribute
Australian Financial Review "Peak Oil Threat Becomes Harder to Ignore" (full article) 13th July 2010. 
An Oil Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Plan is needed for Geraldton. See the recommendation and the background summary (July 28th 2010 ) GWN TV coverage
from the Economist, June 17th 2010
Petrol taxes should be increased each year to prepare us for Peak Oil
News release. Henry Tax Review
xổ số miền trung phú yên hôm qua
Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University Oct-Dec 2010
Expressions of interest are invited to make use of Prof Aleklett's expertise infuture world oil supply scenarios and to help arrange his visit. Details here
27th April 2010 ABC News On-Line and radio("PM")
Profs. Peter Newman and Kjell Aleklett
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 Guardian 11th April 2010 • Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel soon Full US report
Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'
Sydney Morning Herald March 24, 2010
The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2010/100324.html
 Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy
London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.
Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010
Peak Oil and Public Transport. ABC TV Stateline (WA), Dec 4th 2009. Story featuring Dr Jim Buckee, past President and CEO of Talisman Energy, ASPO, public transport, WA Minister for Transport
Brisbane Courier Mail summary of Macquarie and Guardian stories below (21 November 2009)
The UK Guardian: Nov 9th 2009 The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008 by ASPO President Prof Kjell Aleklett and a team including Adelaide's Michael Lardelli
This paper details the errors in IEA analysis and their 25% overestimates of future oil production, as outlined in Prof Aleklett's tour of Australia in June. "In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts".
IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate
The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 was released in London 10th November. It offers nothing much new about oil production, and repeats the unsubstantiated claims made in WEO-2008, that are refuted clearly and simply by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (above). They do provide free the chapter from WEO-2008 about global oil field decline rates. (here)
Maribyrnong City Council’s Peak Oil Contingency Plan. A first for Australia
Peak oil expected in 2009: Macquarie
Spare capacity of 5.2 million bpd will be wiped out by 2012, Australian bank says Sep. 16, 2009 Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.
“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters. (this was covered in North America papers, but not in Australia)
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Prof Kjell Aleklett heads the Global Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala, and he is President of ASPO-International. He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production. He was in Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.
 A highlight was the SmartConference workshop,(details below)
Sydney Morning Herald article "Highly vulnerable to oil shortages" (11th June)
Media alert here Media contacts welcome via Bruce Robinson 0427 398 708
( or Bruce dot Robinson at ASPO-Australia dot org dot Au )
His plenary lecture was entitled "Future Transportation Fuels: Business-as-usual is not an option" (download)
University of Adelaide public seminars: 10 am June 5th , and 5pm June 5th
Canberra June 9th. Departmental briefing at BITRE (download ) and a public Senate committee inquiry hearing (investment in public transport) download , Hansard transcript
Public forum: Peak oil by 2012? Will Sydney’s transport system cope? Professor Aleklett, spoke about peak oil and forecasts for supply (download ). Dr Garry Glazebrook (UTS) outlined the transport needs of the greater Sydney region (download ) and Councillor McInerney presented transport plans for the City of Sydney (June 11th at UTS)
Recent papers and articles from Prof Aleklett and the Global Energy System group
IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate. Platts Conference, Geneva 28th May 2008
Peak-Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries:
Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries (actual OECD PDF version)
European Conference of Ministers of Transport,
Joint OECD/ECMT Transport Research Centre September 2007
Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Abstract of paper to be presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences international energy symposium, Energy2050, to be held on 19-20 October 2009
Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Mikael Höök, Robert Hirsch & Kjell Aleklet Energy Policy, June 2009, 2262-2272
Oil production limits mean opportunities, conservation
Oil & Gas Journal 21st August 2006
In the face of looming oil production shortfalls, all individuals as well as nations as a whole will have to use less oil. And now is the time to begin developing programs accommodating the need for less oil. The coming shortage could provide excellent opportunities for those able to identify them and act strategically.
Mikael Höök (completing a PhD with the Global Energy Systems Group) gave a valuable presentation to the "Managing Risks in Oil and Gas Exploration Forum", Amsterdam, 4th June.
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The Senate inquiry into Public Transport has been holding hearings around Australia.
Details of the inquiry, lists of submissions on the Senate website etc here.
ASPO-Australia made a main submission, one from ASPO-Sydney and one from the Defence and Security working group. We were invited to appear at the Perth hearing (Hansard)
As well there were individual submissions from Dave Kilsby, Garry Glazebrook, Alan Parker and Matt Mushalik (with the prize for the biggest submission, 18MB), and from the Cycling Promotion Fund and Prof. Peter Newman amongst the 142 published so far
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We have prepared a submission to Infrastructure Australia.
Download the full report: Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure: Submission to Infrastructure Australia.
The Executive Summary is reprinted below.
Executive SummaryWorld oil production is at or near its historic peak and will most likely begin to decline within several years. Net exports of oil available on the world market have probably entered a decline that will continue more steeply than the declining rate of production. Compounded by the impact of geopolitical circumstances, extreme weather events and other economic trends, the decline in oil availability will see dramatically increasing and highly volatile oil and fuel prices, oil supply shocks and impacts on economic growth, employment, demographics and transport patterns.
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Executive Summary: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2008/WEO2008_es_English.pdf
Key graphics: http://www.iea.org/weo/key_graphs_08/WEO_2008_Key_Graphs.pdf
Press release: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275 .
As a result of all the leaks and pre-release publicity, the actual release has not attracted as much notice as it deserves.
The New York TImes had covered the pre-release of the Executive Summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 :
The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world’s top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.
The IEA asked us (10th November) to remove our copy of the Executive Summary which was released on Thursday 6th November but not made publicly available in spite of media reports to the contrary. The formal release for the full report was Wed 12th November (links above)
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Jeremy Gilbert, previously Chief Petroleum Engineer for BP worldwide, visited Australia. He gave a presentation to the Municipal Association of Victoria, (1st October) and the keynote address to the Fuelling Food conference at the University of Western Australia (3rd October). He gave a seminar at UWA on 6th October, "Reserves Growth, the Myth in the Peak Oil Debate".
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ASPO-Australia has written to Prof Garnaut, suggesting that much more consideration be given to oil depletion in the lead-up to the 2009 Copenhagen conference.
"We are deeply concerned that your Draft Report explicitly rejects the notion that oil depletion will constrain economic growth within the next 50 years despite very strong evidence to the contrary. In our view the resulting analysis, conclusions and policy recommendations are flawed and will probably exacerbate the climate change mitigation problem.
The purpose of this letter is to draw your attention to growing acceptance of oil depletion in the scientific community and even by the IEA in its revision of the energy forecasts and emissions scenarios in the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2008, a document intended in large part to inform negotiations in Copenhagen. Our view is that this will substantially improve the prospects for an effective agreement around a target atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450ppm."
The full detailed letter to Garnaut (written by Stuart McCarthy in Brisbane) is available here.
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Pedro Prieto, of ASPO-Spain, has written to say the final program of the seventh ASPO conference is available at www.ASPO-Spain.org/ASPO-7 20th-21st October 2008
The theme of the conference is "From below ground to above ground" and more detailed information is available from the conference website above, and in the letter from Pedro Prieto below
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Peak oil - the trigger for global sustainability Ian Dunlop, Deputy Convenor, ASPO-Australia, (etc) ABC Radio "Ockham's Razor" presentation 27th July. Transcript and Audio available
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2008/2313512.htm#transcript
 Future oil shortages prominent in Customs forward planning document.
Main Trends to 2015 Availability of oil and oil-based fuels will become a critical issue http://www.customs.gov.au/webdata/resources/files/strategic_outlook.pdf
News Release, 25th July 2008
An attack on Iran could cripple Australia's transport
An attack on Iran could cripple Australia's transport, Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia said. A third global oil crisis is very likely if Iran is attacked, as 20% of the world's oil is shipped through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Iran also produces about 5% of the world oil (~4 M bbl/day).
A conflagration in the Persian Gulf could make a 30% reduction in petrol and diesel supplies, similar to WA's gas shortage, but with much more severe and widespread consequences.
In the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, Australia was shielded by Bass Strait production, but these fields have been in decline since 1985, and almost 80% of our petroleum products now come from imported oil. Australia is now exceptionally vulnerable to a sudden petrol and diesel shortage.
ASPO-Australia called on Foreign Minister Stephen Smith to caution Condoleeza Rice against any attack on Iran, because of its probable impact on Australia. We are not well prepared to handle a sudden petrol shortage. There are no adequate plans in place to allocate scarce fuel to those in greatest need. If there is petrol rationing, then we will also need to ration public transport, as it does not have enough spare capacity.
Contact Bruce Robinson 08-9384-7409 0427 398 708
Reference: Australian Institute of Petroleum http://www.aip.com.au/industry/supplyreliability.htm
In 2006-07, Australian refineries supplied around 75% of total Australian demand for petroleum products. That is, around 25% of product demand was met by imports. Around 70% of crude oil used in Australian refineries is imported (30% is from Australian oilfields). Australia exports a fair proportion of its oil production while importing other oil, so our overall net oil self-sufficiency is higher than the figures above, but we are very vulnerable in the short-term if imports drop.
The Sydney Morning Herald, one of the nation's leading papers, sums it up in a perceptive cartoon 
CSIRO Future Fuels Forum released its report "Fuel for thought - The future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities" at GM Holden, Melbourne on 11th July 2008.
Petrol tipped to hit $8 a litre by 2018 ABC News
A new report by the CSIRO has warned the cost of petrol could rise to as high as $8 a litre in the next 10 years. The Fuel for Thought study by the Future Fuels Forum says that would be the worst-case scenario if oil production does not keep up with increasing demand.
Petroleum engineer Phil Hart from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas believes it will not be long before the demand for oil will outstrip supply. "Oil production has been essentially flat since 2005, and we have only another couple of years at this same sort of level of production before we start seeing oil production going into decline," he said.
Doctor John Wright from the CSIRO has told ABC's AM program the study also suggests that such an oil shock would have a greater impact than a carbon emissions trading scheme.
Media coverage naturally focussed on the $8/litre scenario, examples below
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/11/2300646.htm
www.smh.com.au/news/national/petrol-to-hit-8-a-litre/2008/07/10/1215658037458.html
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24002278-5017313,00.html
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=496960
Phil Hart on ABC Stateline, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk1HyUnZAgk
ASPO-Australia contacts for further comment, if needed
Phil Hart 0438 037 567
Convenor, Bruce Robinson 0427 398 708 08-9384-7409, Perth
Sydney David Bell, 0413 594 154 Ian Dunlop 0412 586 798
Brisbane Stuart McCarthy 0447 095 141
Adelaide Sam Powrie 0414 307 413
Preparing for the Petrol Droughts. An evidence-based approach
Peak Oil, and what we can do, a review. Bruce Robinson 11th July 2008
Global oil production is quite likely to halve by 2030, with the decline possibly starting very soon. A Federal Office of Oil Vulnerability and a National Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy (as being prepared in Queensland) are essential urgent first steps for Australia. We need to collect and analyse the evidence on which to base future policies to reduce our oil vulnerability across all portfolios.
ASPO Australia spokesperson Phil Hart gave this speech at the launch of the report:
The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil congratulates CSIRO for leading the Future Fuels Forum and thanks all the participants for the constructive dialogue that led to this final report. We have all learnt new things along the way. I have been personally encouraged to hear of the many changes businesses have been making – there are more pro-active changes under way than even I realised.
2007 began with oil prices falling back to near $50 a barrel – because the speculators got it wrong. Many forum participants would have choked on a prediction of $8/litre early last year, but tight supply and the rapid increase in prices since then have given them courage to accept these dramatic model outcomes now. No one can know the precise future of oil prices, but such high figures reflect how hard it is to transform our cities and economies built on cheap oil when we are faced with declining oil production.
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The Peak Oil, oil crisis, and petrol rationing plans are topics that should have been on the agenda at the 2020 summit. Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia, says that governments are ignoring the probability that global oil shortages will start to hit Australia in the next few years, just as our own production continues to decline. We could be facing a crippling oil trade deficit of $100 billion pa by 2015, four times the figure mentioned by Martin Ferguson, unless we can take serious steps to reduce our oil vulnerability. Many bnght people from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil nominated for the summit, but none were selected.
ASPO is concerned that the threats that Peak Oil poses are being systematically ignored and there will be chaos if oil shortages hit Australia. We should plan well ahead for petrol droughts and oil crises, just as we do for cyclones and bushfires. Oil vulnerability assessment should be a routine risk management feature, not a rarity. The most probable date for Peak Oil is 2012 (+/- 5 years)
ABARE's determined forecasts of falling oil prices have been consistently wrong for five years, as it is geological limits that control oil production not economics. Economists do not realise that geological forces are more powerful than market forces. A random number generator would perform better than ABARE's forecasters. See graph at www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/abare-mar-08.jpg
For more information contact Bruce Robinson 08-9384-7409 0427 398 708 or David Bell 0413 594 154
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The DVD is now available to buy from Aquila Productions.
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Transcript of an address given March 4 to the Brisbane Institute by the Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.
I’d like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather this evening.
I want to thank the Board of the Brisbane Institute for the invitation to address this gathering.
Tonight I want to talk about capital S Sustainability.
By that I don’t mean the usual narrow environmental concept of sustainability in agricultural production and land use.
I mean the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the
structure of our cities, their energy and water sources and demand
profiles; the treatment of these sources of our wealth; the imminent
peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and
coal; and the way we dispose of those resources when we’re finished
with them.
I will begin by considering what sustainability means to me.
 
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Speech to Parliament
Ms Rachel Nolan MP - Member for Ipswich
13th March 2008
Ms NOLAN (Ipswich—ALP):
On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and
Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce
and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a
cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the
serious challenge of sustainability.
Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel
of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the
highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation
adjusted terms.
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